What is a major drawback of DCF analysis concerning terminal value?

A major drawback of DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) analysis concerning terminal value is that it relies heavily on assumptions. In DCF models, the terminal value represents the estimated value of a business at the end of the explicit forecast period, usually accounting for a significant portion of the total calculated value. This estimation is sensitive to the assumptions made regarding growth rates, discount rates, and the perpetuity growth method used.

When determining terminal value, analysts typically assume a perpetual growth rate, which can be challenging to estimate accurately. If the assumptions are overly optimistic or pessimistic, the final valuation can be significantly skewed. Therefore, the reliance on these assumptions makes terminal value one of the more uncertain components of a DCF analysis, emphasizing the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses to understand the potential variability in valuations.